Supply risk premium in the DRC accelerated its release, and SHFE tin broke through the 300,000 yuan mark with strong momentum [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on November 27, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2601 contract opened sharply higher and continued to strengthen, closing at 301,400 yuan/mt by midday—up 5,440 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a gain of 1.84%. The contract hit an intraday high of 304,970 yuan/mt, marking the second-highest level since its listing. Market activity was brisk, with trading volume exceeding 96,000 lots and open interest rising to 55,300 lots, as capital intensified bets around supply disruption logic. Meanwhile, LME tin electronic trading was quoted at $38,250/mt, up 0.42%, with the strong overseas market providing correlated support for domestic prices.

The core driver of the tin market currently centers on the continued escalation of supply-side risks. The artisanal mining ban in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces of the DRC has been extended for six months, and escalating conflict in the east has heightened concerns over transport disruptions at the Bisie mine. The region accounts for about 8% of global tin ore production, and geopolitical premiums are being rapidly priced in. Additionally, although Myanmar's Wa State has issued mining permits, actual production resumptions have lagged significantly due to constraints from the rainy season, equipment shortages, and hiring difficulties.

In the short term, low inventory and supply disruptions are jointly driving tin prices higher, but the spot market is struggling to catch up, with downstream acceptance of high prices remaining limited. In the afternoon session, attention should focus on developments in the DRC situation and whether LME tin can hold above the $38,000/mt level. Any escalation in conflict could trigger short covering and further push up prices. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the afternoon, with a projected trading range of 301,000–306,000 yuan.